Super Spurs

As predicted, there were a lot of goals in the Spurs - Liverpool game; 6 to be exact, as Spurs put on a exhibition in redemption to win 4-2.

Happily meaning our over goals bet was a comfortable winner.

Result

Spurs v Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 2.02

Win 4.04

Current Pot: 99.01

Don't like long shots

Arsenal's kids emphatically outplayed Wigan, and Stoke had too much for Rotherham, to put paid to our two outsiders tonight.

Moving swiftly onto tomorrow, the big game is Liverpool v Tottenham. Liverpool are putting out their second string - will a fired up on-a-roll Spurs have too much for them/ Can Redknapp's midas touch extend to the cup (remember last season?). Will home advantage be enough to see Liverpool through?

So many questions - we advise stay away from the match betting.

But, with both sides with nothing to lose and anxious to please, not to mention Spurs dodgy defence and potent attack, there could be goals in this one; we recommend over 2.5 goals, currently available at 2.02 on Betfair.

Advised Bet

Liverpool v Tottenham over 2.5 goals @ 2.02 - 2 points

Current Pot: 96.97

Midweek Carling Cup

Two medium shots tonight.

1. Wigan to Qualify v Arsenal @ 4.1

Wigan are taking this competition seriously and will name a full strength team - Arsenal quite the opposite. Although Arsene's young guns are undoubtedly class, against a physical, bruising yet talented Wigan side (think Valencia, Palacios, Zaki) they will struggle. 4.1 (Betfair) about Wigan progressing seems very big to me.

2. Rotherham to Qualify v Stoke @ 4.3

Different reasoning for this; Rotherham have a good record in cup competitions this season, and Stoke have already announced a weakened side:

Stoke will be without Mamady Sidibe for the tie with Rotherham following an ankle injury suffered by the striker at Wigan on Saturday.

Liam Lawrence is out after having an ankle operation, while Tom Soares and Michael Tonge are both cup tied. On-loan Andrew Davies, out all season with a succession of injuries, returns to training later this week.

Tony Pulis will rest several of his senior players ahead of Saturday's trip to Manchester United, and bring in the likes of goalkeeper Steve Simonsen, Leon Cort, Glenn Whelan, Dave Kitson, Richard Cresswell and Danny Pugh.

Bearing this in mind, the 4.3 available on Rotherham again looks generous - perhaps not so much as Wigan, but good enough value for a punt.

Advised Bets

Wigan to qualify v Arsenal: 1 point @ 4.1
Rotherham to qualify v Stoke: 0.5 points @ 4.3

Hmmmm....

Leeds were held 1-1 by Northampton, despite dominating throughout - but Torquay did the business, with Sills notching twice to record a 2-0 victory.

Hopefully you lumped on Liverpool in accordance with our advice to cover the shortfall!

Results
Leeds @ 4/7 - 2 points - return: 0
Torquay @ 2/5 - 2 points - return 2.8

Current pot: 98.47

One from the depths...

An obscure tip this weekend, that seems to offer some value, is Torquay at home to Evesham in the FA Cup First Round.

Torquay are in a rich vein of form - they are unbeaten in 12 matches, and top scorer Tim Sills is fit after scoring twice in midweek.

Although Evesham had a great result in the previous round - beating Rushden and Diamonds - they have lost convincingly to Gloucester City and Stourbridge since then.

Both teams will be fired up for this; but Torquay's extra class, and great form, should carry them through comfortably.

Torquay are a best price 2/5 with Betfred.

Advised Bet: Torquay @ 2/5
Advised Stake: 2 points

FA Cup Weekend

This doesn't affect the Premiership as its only Round 1, but its FA Cup weekend with the potential for a few upsets. Picking a stand-out winner is difficult - but bearing this in mind Leeds are a decent pick this weekend.

They sit second in League One, and have won their last seven consecutive home games.

Northampton, on the other hand, have won 1, drawn 2, and lost 5 of their 8 away games in League One, and sit 14th. Plus, Northampton's Adebayo Akinfenwa, Luke Gutteridge and Abdul Osman are all out injured, while Colin Larkin is a doubt - so they have a few injuries.

McAllister's assertion that Leeds want to progress in the cup, plus their superior record and undoubted extra class is enough to recommend they progress to the next round.

Leeds are available at 4/7 with Boyles and Ladbrokes.

Advised Bet: Leeds to beat Northampton at 4/7
Advised Stake: 2 points

Weekend Picks

Its been a tough betting week this week - nothing has jumped out, nothing has been blindingly obvious - and most accumulators have gone down, bar the UEFA cup last night.

If we were heavy odds on backers, Liverpool look as solid a bet as you get in the Premiership. The reasons being:

Liverpool have won their last 10 league and cup meetings with West Brom, and are unbeaten in 17 (16 league) against them.

Albion's most recent victory over the Reds was a 2-0 top flight triumph at the Hawthorns on 7 February 1981, when Bryan Robson and Cyrille Regis helped themselves to a goal a piece.

The Baggies have not won at Anfield in 41 years, since prevailing 0-1 in the old First Division on 22 April 1967. They have drawn four and lost 15 of their 19 subsequent league visits.

West Brom have won six of 62 away matches in their Premier League history.

West Brom have picked up just one point out of 12 from a 2-2 home draw with Blackburn on 1 November.

West Brom have lost their last eight Premier League matches against 'Big Four' clubs, and not taken a point off the quartet of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United since winning 2-1, home to Arsenal on 15 October 2005.

Liverpool are undefeated in 16 home Premier League matches, and the only club still to lose a home top-flight game in 2008.

Liverpool have failed to score in only one of 16 home league games; the exception being the goalless draw with Stoke on 20 September.

Liverpool have won 13 of the last 16 league outings at Anfield (four of five this season); dropped just six points out of 48 since losing 0-1 to Manchester United on 16 December 2007.

However, at time of writing, the best price available on Liverpool is 1/4 (Stan James, BetFred, Paddy Power, Bet Direct, and Sky Bet).

We are always advocates of a winning bet being better than a losing bet - however short the odds - but the risk reward ratio here tilts it slightly toward a 'no'.

A little more value and we'd be on - as it stands, we'll leave this for the heavy odds on backers.

Vindicated

Juventus beat Real Madrid 2-0 last night thanks to this man:

(Its Alessandro Del Piero for anyone who doesn't recognise one of the best players in the world over the last 10 years)

He vindicated our advice to abstain from the midweek Champions League. Bring on the weekend - a lot more stands out there...

END

Upsets for the books

It was a night of shocks in the Champions League last night, further evidence on the folly of accumulators.

Chelsea lost 3-1 to Roma, Liverpool nicked a last minute equaliser against Atletico through a dubious penalty, and Barcelona and Inter Milan were both held to draws.

Just goes to show, sometimes no bet is the best bet.

END

Singles Only

At Sportsas, we have decided that singles only is to be our strategy moving forward.

So let's look at the singles only record previously, and take our pot from there:

Chelsea - 5 points at 1.45 - win 2.25
Rooney - 3 points at 2.5 - lose 3
QPR v Bham U2.5 at 1.81 - win 2.43
Bolton v Everton Draw - 1 point at 3.5 - lose 1
Fulham v Wigan Draw - 1 point at 3.45 - lose 1
Everton - 3 points at 1.74 - win 2.22

So, our aggregate singles pot is plus 1.9 points. We will only track singles henceforth - no messing about with multiples!

We will stick to our current pot (no meddling with the figures here), which stands at 99.67.

END

Champions League

Nothing hugely stands out this midweek. You have to fancy Real Madrid at home at the moment, even against Juventus, but 1.67 offers little value. Stay away. Man Utd away to Celtic is anyone's guess - Celtic have an excellent home record and Utd are just excellent. Liverpool v Atletico and Chelsea v Roma are just too close to call.

Unless you fancy a speculative accumulator (which we would always advise against!) our recommendation is to sit back and enjoy the action for the next couple of days.

END

Everton do the business

Everton v Fulham went by the form book - a 1-0 home victory - and gave us a 3 point @ 1.74 win.

Total Stake: 3 points
Odds: 1.74
Return: 5.22
Profit: 2.22

Previous Pot: 97.45
Profit: 2.22

Total Pot: 99.67

END

Weekend Tip

After our overly complex midweek multiples (multiple bets in multiples is two steps too far) we're back to simple singles this weekend. And there is just one of them:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Everton to beat Fulham - 1.74

Speaking to a Fulham fan, he referred to their 'annual defeat at Goodison' and looking at the stats, this very much seems the case. Their record:

HEAD TO HEAD

Everton are defending a 100% home Premier League record against Fulham, and have not dropped a point in 15 top-flight games against the Cottagers at Goodison Park, since being held to a goalless draw on 5 September 1959.

Fulham have dropped more Premier League points away from home to Everton, than to any other club on their travels (21).

Fulham have not managed to score more than a single goal in Premier League matches at Goodison. They have lost two by a 3-1 margin and the last two by three goal margins.

Home and away
League (inc PL): Everton 19 wins, Fulham 13, Draws 8
Prem: Everton 7 wins, Fulham 7, Draws 0

at Everton only
League (inc PL): Everton 16 wins, Fulham 0, Draws 4
Prem: Everton 7 wins, Fulham 0, Draws 0

This could not be much more compelling. Everton are coming into form, and have the influential Tim Cahill back, and Fulham have been consistent in only one area over the past few seasons (apart from losing to Everton) - their bad away form.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Advised Bet: Everton @ 1.74 vs Fulham
Advised Stake: 3 points

Current pot: 97.45

END

Shafted in overtime...

After our winning bet on the QPR - Birmingham game last night, our total pot stands at 101.68.

If games were 89 minutes long, we would have had a dream evening. However, they are not... A reminder of the advised bets for last night:

Bolton v Everton
The Draw
3.5

Fulham v Wigan
The Draw
3.45

1 point singles and a 1 point double: Total stake 3 points

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Hull v Chelsea
Chelsea
1.51

Man Utd v West Ham
Man Utd
1.22

Liverpool v Portsmouth
Liverpool
1.38

Arsenal v Tottenham
Arsenal
1.48

.5 point trebles and a .5 point accumulator: Total Stake 2.5 points

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's review this.

Fulham v Wigan - Draw - this was a stone cold loser. Wigan have been surprisingly inconsistent this season, and Fulham took advantage of a bad day. No argument here.

Bolton v Everton - Draw - A Marouane Fellaini header in the 92nd minute denied us here.

So no win - 3 points lost.

Moving onto the other four - the Big 4 - we backed them all to win, three trebles and a double. Again, until the 89th minute we were looking good, then from nowhere, Spurs popped up with two goals to equalise and deny us a clean sweep.

So here, we had a stake of 2.5 - and one of the .5 trebles came up (Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea) giving us a return of 1.27. So, overall, this is a loss of 1.23.

Coupled with the lack of draws in the other two games above, this gave us an overall loss of 4.23 points.

If the games were five minutes shorter, how different it would be...

Total Pot now 97.45

END

Result!

A reminder of our advised bet yesterday...

QPR v Birmingham
Under 2.5 goals
1.81

3 point single


Result:

QPR 1-0 Birmingham

So, a winning bet. Takes us back where we belong... with bets to come this evening.


Original Pot: 99.25
Bet: 3 points @ 1.81
Win: 5.43
Profit: 2.43

Total pot: 101.68

END

Tips Galore

Here we are - our midweek tips. To change it up, we're going to go for a couple of multiples.

1. Both Bolton and Fulham have tight defences. Both Everton and Wigan are suffering a dip in form and will be happy with a point. Two stalemates here - potentially 1-1 if we're going to stick our necks out - but back both singles and a double, and you need one to come in to make a profit.

2. Back the Big Guns. Chelsea are away to Hull - they will be anxious to bounce back from their defeat to Liverpool and will have too much quality. However buoyant Hull are, some games are a bridge to far. This is one of them. Then you have Man Utd at home to West Ham - again, a rebound result - Utd dropped more points at home to Everton, but should have too much for the Hammers. They are still learning under Zola (Mark Noble admitted recently it could take them two years to adjust to his tactics) and are missing Carlton Cole. Utd have only conceded one goal at home all season, and should be too strong, perhaps with Ronaldo coming into form. Thirdly, Liverpool. They will be desperate to build on their victory over Chelsea (they lost momentum by drawing with Stoke after their win against Man Utd) and face a Pompey team who will be in shock after the departure of Harry Redknapp. Finally, you have Arsenal - they face Spurs at home. Potentially a resurgent Spurs, but a Spurs still in turmoil. Expect 'Arry to have a reality check here, and an Arsenal victory. Back the trebles and the four fold, and you need 3 winners to profit.

3. Moving to the Championship - QPR put on an awesome defensive display to hold Reading at the Madejski, and face Birmingham next up. Expect them to be tight and stingy at the back, and frustrate the Brummies (with a lack of direction perhaps, after the recent managerial upheaval). Despite being top, Birmingham have not been prolific in front of goal (18 in 13 matches) but are tight at the back (only 8 conceded). Go under 2.5 goals in this one, at around 1.8.


So, a proliferation of tips here: a summary (all odds from Betfair):

Bolton v Everton
The Draw
3.5

Fulham v Wigan
The Draw
3.45

1 point singles and a 1 point double: Total stake 3 points

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Hull v Chelsea
Chelsea
1.51

Man Utd v West Ham
Man Utd
1.22

Liverpool v Portsmouth
Liverpool
1.38

Arsenal v Tottenham
Arsenal
1.48

.5 point trebles and a .5 point accumulator: Total Stake 2.5 points

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

QPR v Birmingham
Under 2.5 goals
1.81

3 point single

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other potentials (not counted towards bank:)

Bolton 1-1 Everton Correct score betting @ 7
Fulham 1-1 Wigan Correct score betting @ 7.2
Cristiano Ronaldo first goalscorer Man Utd v West Ham @ around 4 (odds not yet up)

END

Not so much....

It was a classic game of two halves as Utd and Everton fought out a 1-1 draw. For the first 45 minutes, Utd looked excellent, Rooney looked excellent, and it seemed only a matter of time before he scored and we won again.

However, unfortunately, the second half was very different. Everton stifled Utd, Rooney got frustrated, got booked, kissed his badge to taunt the Everton fans... then was substituted to avoid being sent off.

However well you are playing, however much of a hot streak you are on, something beyond your control can interfere - and for Rooney, it was his temper. However much of a man he is, he remains a boy.

And he cost us this week - our first losing bet, and it hurts.

Current Pot: 99.25 points

A winner this midweek to get us back where we belong - positive.

END

This Weekend

Every Premiership team is in action this weekend - so there are a raft of bets out there. Picking the best is no easy task - but we're going with the form book, and if there's one person currently in form, its Wayne Rooney.

Man Utd are starting to purr, whereas Everton are seriously spluttering - in fact they have the worst home defensive record in the Premiership - but there is no value in a Utd win. Goodison park is never an easy place to go, and the widely available 4/7 just doesn't cut it.

However, with Everton's shakey defence, and Utd's potent attack, you have to think Utd will score - and Rooney looks the most likely to do so. He is in the goalscoring form of his life, with 9 goals in his last 7 games, and will be fired up against his boyhood club.

Take advantage of the purple patch - or trend - and get on Rooney to score at anytime.

The price is not yet up on Betfair, but the same bet was 2.4 against West Brom so its likely to be around 2.5.


Our tip:

Wayne Rooney to score at anytime - around 2.5 on Betfair

Everton are likely to concede - Rooney is likely to score.

Current Pot: 102.25
Advised Bet: 3 points - Rooney to score anytime.

One from one....

It was toil and trouble but Chelsea eventually prevailed 1-0 against Roma last night. The Italian team were immensely disappointing - far from going for the win that would have catapulted them into a strong position in the group, they packed 10 men behind the ball for the entire game, and didn't have a single shot on target.

It took an excellent John Terry header from a corner to break the deadlock - but Chelsea always looked calm, and in control.

So - Bet 1 is up.

Bet: Chelsea to beat Roma
Odds: 1.45
Stake: 5 points
Return: 7.25 points

Total Pot: 102.25

The Opening Gambit

Welcome to the blog of Sportsas, the Sports Advisory Service.

Tip 1 - Chelsea v Roma, Wednesday October 22nd, 19.45

Roma League Form

31 Aug 08	AS Roma	1 - 1	Napoli
13 Sep 08	Palermo	3 - 1	AS Roma
20 Sep 08	AS Roma	3 - 0	Reggina
24 Sep 08	Genoa	3 - 1	AS Roma
28 Sep 08	AS Roma	2 - 0	Atalanta
5 Oct 08	Siena	1 - 0	AS Roma
19 Oct 08	AS Roma	0 - 4	Inter Milan

Roma currently sit 14th in Serie A, and are in disarray after a 4-0 home defeat by Inter Milan.

Chelsea League Form

17 Aug 08	Chelsea	4 - 0	Portsmouth
24 Aug 08	Wigan Athletic	0 - 1	Chelsea
31 Aug 08	Chelsea	1 - 1	Tottenham
13 Sep 08	Manchester City	1 - 3	Chelsea
21 Sep 08	Chelsea	1 - 1	Manchester Utd
27 Sep 08	Stoke City	0 - 2	Chelsea
5 Oct 08	Chelsea	2 - 0	Aston Villa
18 Oct 08	Middlesbrough	0 - 5	Chelsea

Chelsea have won six of their first eight premiership games, haven't conceded for three games, sit serenely atop the Premiership, and come into this game on the back of a vintage 5-0 destruction of Boro.

Champions League Form

Group A
16-9-2008	AS Roma	1 - 2	Cluj
16-9-2008	Chelsea	4 - 0	Bordeaux
1-10-2008	Bordeaux	1 - 3	AS Roma
1-10-2008	Cluj	0 - 0	Chelsea

Cluj have done well - beating Roma in Rome, and holding Chelsea at home - and both Roma and Chelsea beat Bordeaux, Chelsea more comfortably.

• So, Chelsea have better results against both the other teams in the group, and are in better league form.
• Chelsea have not conceded for three games - Roma have lost their last 3 away.
• Considering Cluj's position in the group, this is actually a must win game for Roma - Chelsea will know that, and will play accordingly.
  
• Plus, Roma have a poor record against English sides in Europe - remember their 7-1 annihilation at the hands of Man Utd?
  

Our Tip:

Chelsea to win - around 1.45 available on Betfair

Yes, they are a short price. Yes its a little unimaginative. But do you want to make money, or don't you? A winning 1.45 shot is better than a losing 4.5.

Current Pot: 100 points
Advised Bet: 5 points - Chelsea at 1.45